As I said in an earlier post, the folks as Programmableweb.com announced the that the number of open APIs they track reached an unbelievable number—4000—in record time.
The published this graph showing the hockey stick growth rate:
Figure 1—Total Number of APIs
So lets take quick look at the dynamics of this growth rate.
Phil Windley helped me out and here is what we came up with.
The data could be interpreted as a power law.
Figure 2—Extrapolating the Numbers
source: Craig Burton and Phil Windley
But I am going to go out on a limb and predict that something even more dynamic is in play. If you look at Figure 3, you can see that somewhere between Oct. and Nov. 2010, the growth Netflix was enjoying took a serious turn for the better. Hits on the API went from 4 billion a month to 12 billion in 30 days.
Figure 3—Growth of Netflix API
If I am right, I expect that we hit the 5000 API mark sometime in mid 2012. Then instead of just going on the power curve to 7117 APIs by 2013, the industry will experience an exponential skip—like the one in figure 3 for Netflix—the jump will go from 5,000 to over 10,000 almost over night. So that we will be way ahead of this ambitious curve shown in Figure 2.
I have no real data to support that. I just think the movement is about to jump the chasm from early adopters to early majority sometime in 2012.
Get access to the whole body of KC PLUS research including Leadership Compass documents for only €800 a year
Register now for KuppingerCole Select and get your free 30-day access to a great selection of KuppingerCole research materials and to live trainings.
AI for the Future of your Business: Effective, Safe, Secure & Ethical Everything we admire, love, need to survive, and that brings us further in creating a better future with a human face is and will be a result of intelligence. Synthesizing and amplifying our human intelligence have therefore the potential of leading us into a new era of prosperity like we have not seen before, if we succeed keeping AI Safe, Secure and Ethical. Since the very beginning of industrialization, and even before, we have been striving at structuring our work in a way that it becomes accessible for [...]